Weekly Market Outlook (3/6/23)

WEEKLY​ MARKET OUTLOOK

TRADERVERSE
5 min readMar 6

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FOR THE WEEK OF March 6, 2023

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Bull Case: The major daily trend line, as previously discussed, was defended by Bulls. This level of 3925 also had confluence with the daily demand. There was a new, 8 Hour demand that was created at 3983. Price is currently at a prior strong support between 4050–4058. Bulls will want to hold price above 4058, as the next strong daily supply sits at 4141.25.


Bear Case: Bears will need to fight to keep price action below 4058, which was a prior support and they will want to see if this prior support would then act as resistance. If price breaks above, next major supply sits at 4141.25. Ultimately, bears will do their all to bring price below the major daily trend line.

SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE

Apple Inc. (AAPL)

Tesla Motor Co. (TSLA)

Invesco Trust (QQQ)

Alphabet Inc. (GOOG)

Amazon.com Inc. (AMZN)

BITCOIN (BTC)

S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Nvidia (NVDA)

EARNINGS RELEASE CALENDAR

FOR WEEK OF March 6

NEWS RECAP

Feb 27 — Mar 5

AI Frenzy

Once thought of as a futuristic concept, AI is quickly becoming a major part of our lives. AI is being used in a variety of ways, from helping to diagnose illnesses to powering autonomous vehicles and is beginning to be used more widely in consumer products, such as the iPhone, which uses AI to improve its features and functions. There are two key reasons investors should keep a close eye on this “AI revolution”. The velocity at which AI is growing and improving and the rapid and warm reception AI has received from consumers. After years of somewhat empty promises, and in a world where timing is everything, a tech industry starved for growth might have finally found what analysts at BofA have called a new “iPhone moment.”

U.S. Labor Market Cooling

Despite government reports indicating that the labor market is running hot, private-sector job postings are suggesting that the demand for U.S. workers are showing signs of slowing. Figures from ZipRecruiter and Recruit Holdings, two large online recruiting companies, showed that the number of job postings on their sites declined more late last year than the Labor Department report on job openings for that period indicated. This data is potentially foretelling a decrease in openings in coming Labor Department reports, and a slowdown in hiring throughout the rest of this year.

Battery Metal Prices Fall Back to Earth

In the past few months, previously inflated cobalt and lithium prices have cooled dramatically coming from both the supply and demand sides. Supply bottlenecks are easing up, output of everything from batteries to actual vehicles has slowed sharply, and global demand for many consumer electronics have reduced as well. Cobalt prices in February were down 61% from January last year as lithium has seen a sharp correction of 21% since November. Analysts are predicting a further fall in these “EV metal” prices, unless growth in all three of the world’s major economic engines — the U.S., Europe, and China — beat expectations on the upside this year.

Crypto Firms Ditch Silvergate

Coinbase, Paxos Trust, and a number of other notable crypto companies cut ties with one of the digital-currency market’s top banks, Silvergate Capital whose financial troubles threaten the industry’s ability to fulfill basic financial transactions. Silvergate bet big on the crypto market, focusing on crypto firms as a way to distinguish itself from other regional banks by becoming a conduit for turning dollars into digital currency. It grew along with the rest of the market during crypto’s rise but has fallen fast. Silvergate’s stock dropped 58% last Thursday and was recently forced to sell its assets at a steep loss after a flurry of customers made a run on the bank, withdrawing billions of dollars of deposits.

Visa & Mastercard Pause Crypto Push

After the crypto industry saw a stunning reversal in 2022 as bankruptcies of industry majors FTX and BlockFi rattled investors and increased regulatory scrutiny on the sector, U.S. payment giants are hitting the brakes on plans to forge new partnerships with crypto firms. Both Visa and Mastercard have decided to push back the launch of certain products and services related to crypto until market conditions and the regulatory environment improve.

Home-Price Growth Slowed in 2022 & Mortgage Rates Rise

Mortgage rates rose again, hitting levels not seen since their most recent peak on November 10, when rates were above 7%. The average rate on a 30-year fixed mortgage climbed from 6.50% to 6.65% last week, still up significantly from the 3.75% rates just one year ago. Mortgage rates have risen for four straight weeks, the longest streak of gains since September, pushing many would-be buyers back to the sidelines. Contradictory to the rising mortgage rates, many economists expect prices to continue to slide across the country from their spring 2022 peaks, with some calling for year-over-year price declines later this year.

Economic Data Calendar

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